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    Gavekal Research

    The Questions For The Coming Year

    The apparent glide path into year-end suggests that 2018 should offer up more of the same seen in 2017. Louis does not rule out a continuation of this “Goldilocks” scenario, but worries that global inflation could be brewing in unexpected quarters at a time when frenzied trading in speculative assets such as bitcoin produces countervailing responses from policymakers. In this wide-ranging tour across the investment landscape he asks whether, in...

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research December Call

    In Gavekal Research’s monthly conference call yesterday Anatole Kaletsky outlined five reasons why investors can be optimistic that the current bull market will continue for years to come. His bullishness is moderated by three broad risks.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    There Is Now An Alternative

    There were no surprises yesterday, either in the Federal Reserve’s rate hike, or in its forecasts for next year. With the labor market set to “remain strong”, the unemployment rate likely to inch down to 3.9%—full employment—and growth forecast to get a modest boost from tax cuts to 2.5%, the dot plot projects three 25bp hikes in 2018.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Is Beijing Winning The Battle For Blue Skies?

    An unprecedented campaign to reduce air pollution has shuttered factories across north China, with a success that has upended the consensus view that local-government officials always favor economic growth over the environment. In this piece, Yanmei examines whether this change in environmental enforcement is going to be temporary or permanent.

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    Gavekal Research

    An Original Sinner Repents

    Two weeks ago, state-backed toll road operator Jasa Marga became the first Indonesian corporate to issue a “komodo” bond—a rupiah-denominated global bond. Seen in isolation, the three-year IDR4tn (US$295mn) issue yielding 7.5% might appear little more than a novelty. However, Udith thinks it could hold more significance.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: China 20/20

    In this final issue of China Economic Quarterly, an all-star cast of contributors takes a look back at how the country has changed since 1997, and a look forward at how China, and its global impact, might evolve in the next couple of decades. The basic lesson is that it has never paid to underestimate China’s growth potential and capacity for change.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Understanding China, In 20 Books (And One Movie)

    An annotated reading and viewing list for those who just can’t get enough of China.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Good Few Decades, But Not A ‘Chinese Century’

    The China Economic Quarterly will cease publication with this issue, which also marks its 20th anniversary. CEQ started life as a newsletter for a small coterie of executives and observers interested in what was then a peripheral bit of the world economy. As China became more important and information about it in more demand, we built the Dragonomics research service around it. Today China is crucial in any discussion of global affairs, and the...

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Waiting For Their Generation

    Young Chinese who came of age during “Reform and Opening” have more liberal notions than their elders for China’s future. The tectonic plates of government and society are moving in opposite directions, but we will have to wait at least 20 years for a decisive shift to occur.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Never A Brother In Arms

    Over the past 20 years, China failed to follow the path Western powers had scripted for it. Instead, it is emerging as a different type of global leader, defying conventional wisdom and generating new challenges for the supporters of the old order.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Environmental Horizon: Still Murky

    At long last, Beijing is getting serious about tackling the huge environmental problems caused by breakneck growth. Much more improvement is needed to clean up China’s environmental record both at home and abroad.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Handicapping The Global Power Shift

    China still oscillates between a desire to promote consensus and collaboration on the international stage, and powerful hegemonic and self-interested urges. More concerted international efforts will be needed to make sure the former prevails.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Misreading The Past, Misjudging The Future

    Smart observers have repeatedly got China wrong over the past three decades, selling short its growth potential and exaggerating its fragility. Chances are that many of today’s dark forecasts will prove wrong as well.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Tarnished Triumph

    China’s economy has grown faster than even the biggest optimists imagined two decades ago. Yet social and political change has lagged behind, while policy has become less reformist and more statist. As Beijing pours ever more resources into low-productivity prestige projects, the economic future is unlikely to be as bright as the past.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Pax Americana-Sinica

    China’s rise is making it increasingly costly for the US to uphold Pax Americana in Asia. China wants to replace it, but scant regional enthusiasm means Pax Sinica is some way off. For the next two decades, an uneasy truce should hold in Asia.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    From The Archives: The Internet Master Plan

    Don’t say we couldn’t have seen it coming. In this condensed reprint from the March 1999 CEQ, we explain Beijing’s strategy for building an internet that would promote growth, spur technological development—and vastly increase the state’s ability to exercise centralized coordination and control of the economy, and everything else.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Lessons From History

    Confessions of an analyst who got China wrong in 1997, but created a successful business and career anyway.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Why India Will Never Be China

    Drawing a comparison between Asia’s two giants is tempting, but differences outnumber similarities. Despite the appeal of China’s economic model, there is little chance that Asia’s oldest democracy will follow in Beijing’s footsteps.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Twenty Years Of Gain, And Much Pain

    The China that foreign businesses operate in today is immensely different from the one they ventured into 20 years ago. Challenges have multiplied for MNCs along with China’s economic and political rise.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Bitcoin: Money Or Bust

    The definitive characteristic of money is that it is a common medium of exchange. A good becomes money when people within a community begin to accept it, not for consumption nor to produce other goods, but for its expected use in indirect exchange. The chosen money may have non-monetary uses, as gold does, but this is not a requirement for its acceptance. This brings me to bitcoin. Crypto-currencies such as Bitcoin have no non-monetary use. That...

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