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E.g., 24-05-2017
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    Gavekal Research

    Handicapping The French Election

    Things are on the up across Europe: better PMIs, growing employment, increasing trade, stronger consumer confidence and of course rising currency and equity markets. The combination of re-accelerating growth across emerging markets—key export markets for most eurozone countries—low energy prices, very easy monetary policy, low interest rates and a deeply undervalued exchange rate is working its magic. In fact, at this juncture, the only factor...

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Macro Update: A Strong Start To A Stable Year

    In our latest quarterly chartbook, Chen Long reviews the latest data and the broadly positive outlook for 2017. Industrial reflation likely peaked in Q1, but the momentum of investment and consumption is solid. Policy is getting marginally tighter as the housing market keeps surprising, but the moves are gradual in this politically sensitive year.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Hong Kong: Meet The New Boss

    Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss? Last Sunday saw the “election” of Carrie Lam, CY Leung’s former Number 2, to the post of Hong Kong chief executive. The hope now has to be that, just as Robert Wagner in Austin Powers proved altogether more competent than Dr Evil, Hong Kong’s Number 2 will show herself to be more competent than her former boss in handling the territory’s affairs.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    US Auto Sales Hit Their Speed Limit

    US auto sales leveled off 18 months ago, and growth has been stalled ever since. Now with interest rates rising and lenders tightening standards on auto loans, KX sees additional reasons to believe that sales have reached their speed limit. Happily, the problems are largely sector-specific, not indicative of general weakness in US consumer demand.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Hong Kong Seminar — March 2017

    In Gavekal’s Asia focused seminar in Hong Kong last week Arthur Kroeber, Udith Sikand and Tom Holland presented their outlooks for the rest of the year.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Yes To Brexit, No To Rate Hikes

    Tomorrow should see the UK initiate its departure from the European Union by triggering Article 50 and starting the clock on a two year exit negotiation. Yet far from anxiously counting down the days, investors have spent the last week bidding sterling higher, largely on the belief that a robust UK economy may soon spur tighter monetary policy. That is probably a bullish interpretation too far, and the pound’s next significant move will probably...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Shaky Foundation For Iron Ore

    Iron ore prices are still high, but for how much longer? Returning from a field trip, Rosealea is now more convinced prices will fall. A government campaign to close low-end steel producers is aggravating cyclical swings rather than changing the structure of the industry. As supply is now rising to meet demand, prices will come under pressure.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    After The Health Care Reform Failure

    The Republican drive to repeal and replace Obamacare failed ignominiously on Friday. Together, President Donald Trump and House Speaker Paul Ryan were unable to muster enough support to pass the new health care bill through the House of Representatives. Bowing to reality, they pulled the vote. If there is a positive element to this failure, it is that both the administration and Congress will now shift their focus to tax reform. However, the...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    A-Shares Come In From The Cold

    Last year, MSCI raised three objections which prohibited the inclusion of China’s onshore A-share markets in its benchmark indexes. In a document published yesterday MSCI suggested two of those obstacles can now be overcome. Chances are high that the third objection can also be dealt with, allowing the inclusion of A-shares as early as this year.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Sanctions With Chinese Characteristics

    Since South Korea decided to host a US missile-defense system, China has restricted tourism and closed local operations of Korean firms. The dispute will mean some economic pain for Korea, but no lasting damage. But China is ever more willing to use such “sanctions with Chinese characteristics” to disrupt trade with countries that displease it.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Europe’s Surest Bet

    As investors fret about the trajectory of US growth and the sustainability of the Trump reflation trade, Europe is getting drawn in. Sovereign yields fell pretty much across the board yesterday on worries that the eurozone’s gathering cyclical upturn could be disrupted. In this case, the thinking is that monetary stimulus by the European Central Bank gets extended. To our mind, such worries are overdone as—absent an external shock—Europe’s pick-...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Will Washington Disappoint?

    Equity markets have pretty much straight lined higher since the US election on hopes for market-friendly tax cuts, health care reform, and broad deregulation. Worries about high import tariffs and other potential growth-sapping measures have been set to one side. In short, investors have been counting on “Trump without the bad stuff”. With the S&P 500 yesterday sliding -1.2%—the first fall of more than -1% since November’s election—they now...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Why This Time May Be Different For EMs

    Going into 2017, the logic of Donald Trump’s “America First” program suggested that investors should be long US equities and the dollar, and short longer-dated treasuries. Such an outcome would have been horrible for emerging markets. And yet EMs have rallied 13% year-to-date. The swing factor has been the sideways move of the US dollar in the intervening period, which persuaded investors to cover short-bets on EMs. In this chartbook Joyce...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Profit Illusion

    Inflation has a way of making things look better than they really are. This is especially true of corporate profits. After a dismal first half last year, S&P 500 companies reported an earnings recovery in 2H16. In the final quarter, they posted profit growth of 6% YoY (with or without financials). Alas, this recovery appears to be a mirage, caused by accelerating inflation. Using official flow of funds data for the domestic non-financial...

    5
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The State Of The State Sector

    After forty years of market reforms, state-owned enterprises retain an exceptionally large role in China’s economy. Though their financial performance is deteriorating and their debts are growing, SOEs’ share of the economy is rising rather than falling. In this chartbook, Andrew pulls together the data to show the true state of China’s SOEs.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Where The French Center May Fail

    Just five weeks after the deciding second round of France’s presidential election, French voters go to the polls yet again. In another two-round ballot, to be held on successive Sundays in June, the French electorate will vote in a new lower house of parliament. The overwhelming consensus is that voters will choose a centrist in the presidential election. But if they do, their choice may well not allay France’s heightened political risk.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The UK Nine Months After The Brexit Vote

    With Theresa May’s government set to begin the formal exit process from the European Union, Charles reckons now is the right time to step back and see just how the UK economy has fared in the nine months since that fateful referendum. In this concise chartbook, he tours Britain’s economic and market landscape and finds that value is to be had across multiple asset classes.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research March Call

    Yesterday’s call had Cedric Gemehl and Anatole Kaletsky opine on political risk leading up to French and German national elections later this year. Nick Andrews argued that the eurozone recovery is becoming self-sustaining, and offered views on capturing the upside, while hedging against political risk.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Hedges In A Bull Market

    It is hard to find an equity market anywhere that is not in bull market territory. This much is clear from a quick look at the Gavekal TrackMacro grid. Simply put, not a single country is now flashing red. You have to go back to the Spring of 2014 for such a benign global macro backdrop.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Tightening That Dare Not Speak Its Name

    China’s central bank has raised short-term policy rates for the second time this year—while going to great lengths to avoid signaling an aggressive tightening. The central bank likely still hopes that a coming roll-over in producer price inflation will calm sentiment, and that other, non-monetary measures will help cool down the property market.

    0
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