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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Five Macro Questions For 2017

    For our first China research piece of the new year, we offer a guide to the economic outlook in the form of short answers to some big questions: Will China be as boring as consensus forecast imply? Will the central bank hike interest rates? Will the housing market correct sharply? Will it be a good year for Chinese equities? Will the labor market hold up?

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Macro Update: Reflation Continues Into 2017

    In our latest quarterly chartbook, Chen Long assesses the outlook for China next year. Growth driven by industrial reflation should continue into early 2017, as private investment and consumption both improve. With inflation up and growth stable, monetary policy is tighter on the margin, which will likely lead to a downturn in housing sales.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Our 2016 Holiday Reading List

    “All books are divisible into two classes,” said John Ruskin, “the books of the hour, and the books of all time.” This year’s list of works enjoyed by Gavekal staff in 2016 includes books from both categories; among them are an account of Russian nationalism, an examination of the sharing economy, and a look at the future of Japan. Happy reading.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    How Not To Control Coal Prices

    The price of coal has been on a wild ride recently—and the volatility is not over yet. China’s government spent much of 2016 trying to push the coal price up, but the ensuing price surge now has them backpedaling and trying to push prices down again. There is a real risk these interventions will cause prices to overshoot on the downside in 2017.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Putting The Lenin Back In Leninism

    When Xi Jinping took power four years ago, the Communist Party was plagued by opposition and factionalism, a loss of control over provincial governments, and an erosion of legitimacy. To solve these problems Xi has centralized power in a single leader—himself. Such a retrograde approach bodes ill for China’s long-run economic and political future.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Can Stability Maintenance Survive Trump?

    To meet the needs of their own political cycle, Chinese leaders will aim to ensure steady economic growth for the next year. Unfortunately, it seems that the political need of US president-elect Donald Trump is to cause as much disruption for China as possible.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Leninism Upgraded: Xi Jinping’s Authoritarian Innovations

    In order to cement Communist Party control and discipline, Xi Jinping has dismantled China’s successful model of ‘explorative governance’ and latitude for local initiative. China’s long-term success depends on whether he is willing to relax the reins after the 2017 Party Congress.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Grand Bargain Or Grand Conflict With The US?

    For more than two centuries, China-US relations have swung back and forth between high expectations and dashed hopes. Today the stakes are higher than ever, as Beijing seeks to carve out a sphere of influence and Washington struggles to craft a response. And where the relationship is headed under a volatile President Trump is anyone’s guess.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Steady As She Goes (Despite Trump)

    China is still on track to maintain GDP growth of 6% or more in the run-up to the 19th Party Congress in late 2017. Despite threats of a trade war with the US, Trump’s election probably hands China some long-run strategic benefits

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Only One Winner In The Global Robot War

    The US and Europe hope that the rise of robotics will bring manufacturing back to advanced economies. But China is well equipped to make the most of the robot revolution, leaving little space for other players.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Boom And Bust In The Electric Vehicle Market

    China has poured immense resources into creating a market for electric vehicles. But it is struggling to create a self-sustaining industry. As with the failed industrial policy for conventional autos in the 1990s, too much intervention might be the problem.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Nearing The End Of The Last Housing Boom?

    In 2016, China had its strongest housing market upturn since the global financial crisis. Driven by policy and debt, this surge is unlikely to continue through next year. Fundamental demand has peaked and the government wants to keep prices in check.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Enigma Of Chinese Power

    Arthur reviews four books that explain why the Communist Party has been so successful, what could bring it down, and Xi Jinping’s strategy for keeping it alive.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: Xi Jinping’s China

    2017 will be a very political year for China. The short-term priority is a smooth economic run-up to the Communist Party Congress, when Xi Jinping will strengthen his grip on power. In the long term, questions are growing as to whether the Party is flexible enough to govern a dynamic society. This issue of CEQ assesses China’s political future.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Rise Of A New Conglomerate

    If China’s sputtering state enterprise reforms are going to be successful anywhere, it should be in Shandong, with its solid economy and reform-minded governor. But a closer look at Yankuang Group, the province’s poster child for SOE reform, shows that local SOEs are just becoming even larger, more complicated and less transparent conglomerates.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Assessing EMs Vulnerability To The Trump Trade

    Emerging markets have faced selling pressure since Donald Trump’s US presidential election win started to drive treasury yields higher. EM debt funds saw their largest ever outflow the week after the election, while currencies have fallen on fears of trade protectionism and more talk of the US dollar being primed for a 1980s-style super-spike. Given this basket of worries, Joyce revisits her “emerging market relative balance sheet vulnerability...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Something's Gotta Give

    Louis Gave held a conference call on December 6 where he discussed the state of global markets as the US gets ready for a Trump presidency. The fundamental challenge for investors is that while equities and the US dollar have rallied strongly and bonds have sold off in a “Trump reflation trade,” it is not clear how long that trade can withstand the reality of Trump’s economic program.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Gavekal Monthly: Preparing For The Trumped-Up Economy

    Markets have been on a startling trajectory since Donald Trump upended investors’ assumptions with his win in the US presidential election. In this issue of the Monthly two Gavekal partners ask whether the macro environment really has fundamentally shifted due to the emerging policy platform of the president-elect.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Making Sense Of The Housing-Commodity Nexus

    Early sales data confirm that China’s property cycle took another step down in November. Yet no one seems to have told the commodity markets: even as property sales have cooled off, prices have heated up, with domestic futures for steel, copper, and coal jumping 20-40% in November. In this piece, Rosealea explains how to read these mixed signals.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Don't Blame The Property Speculators

    Is a love of speculation sapping firms’ appetite for real investment? As Chinese companies slow spending on fixed assets, they are buying more investment properties—sparking concern about a “hollowing out” of the economy. Thomas says the blame is misplaced; property speculation is an effect not a cause of firms slowing capex as the economy cools.

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