E.g., 26-02-2018
E.g., 26-02-2018
We have found 11238 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Worry Not About Asian Currencies

    Asian central banks have in recent weeks taken actions or sent signals that seemingly aim to weaken their currencies. The worry is that a source of return which contributed to last year's outperformance has been lost and exchange rate declines may presage an inflationary breakout. Such a tightening scenario may materialize down the road, but it is far from being a concern.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Everything Looks Fine, But…

    The year has opened with growth expectations and risk appetites at their highest levels in years. The consensus is probably right that it will be a good year for economies and stock markets. The main thing to watch out for is a faster-than-expected withdrawal of QE and low-interest rate policies by the ECB and the BOJ, which could send US bond yields sharply higher.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Indian Politics And The Cycle

    Despite its soaring equity markets, India had a sticky year in 2017. Quarterly GDP growth dipped below 6% in the summer, laid low by disruptive reforms, bad debt, anemic credit and weak private investment (see India’s Economic Funk). The outlook for 2018 is healthier: the twin shocks from demonetization and the introduction of a goods and sales tax have largely dissipated, consumption has rebounded, and manufacturing is accelerating. Feeble...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Working-Capital Heist

    Amid the ups and downs of China's recent investment cycles, one trend has stayed constant: the slowdown in private-sector investment. In this piece, Thomas shows that a key problem is state firms routinely delaying payments to their private suppliers, forcing them to hold huge reserves of working capital that can’t be productively invested.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Dare To Dabble In US High Yield

    Last week US high yield spreads narrowed to within a whisker of their cycle low, bringing them within striking distance of their 2007 low. When things cannot get much better, they seldom do. However, this may be one of those rare historical occasions when things do indeed go from good to even better. The US tax changes that went into effect last week have the potential to drive credit spreads to record depths.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    One More Cheerful Year In China

    A key driver of the synchronized global economic pickup and attendant rally in risk assets has been China’s shift from deflation to reflation. In 2018, a key question is whether China can sustain growth while containing financial risk. Arthur thinks it can easily do so, and in this paper outlines the reasons why.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    France: Believe The Hype

    A basic assumption among Anglo-Saxon investors has been that France, for all its nice food, good wine and smart infrastructure, was the unreformable economy. Then Emmanuel Macron came along promising to fix things, duly got elected president, orchestrated a thumping parliamentary majority and actually began to deliver on promises.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Tax Reform, Capex And Financial Engineering

    The tax bill passed into US law last month is not short of critics. But for all the opprobrium it has attracted, the new law may help to repair some of the damage inflicted on the US economy over recent years by the Federal Reserve’s misguided interest rate policies. By favoring capital investment in the real economy over leveraged financial engineering, the new tax regime may yet prove broadly positive for Main Street—but at a considerable cost...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China In 2018: Continuity And Centralization

    China is set for another year of decent growth in 2018. The latest set of policy conclaves have re-affirmed the broad policy direction: more emphasis on the quality of growth than its speed, and continued efforts in the "three key battles" against financial risk, poverty and pollution. The main financial goals are to cut corporate debt/equity ratios rather than to reduce overall national leverage.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Drains On Liquidity

    For ease of math, assume that the world consumes 100mn barrels of oil a day. Then further assume an inventory across the system equal to about 100-days’ usage (in pipelines, ships and refineries). Thus, when the price of oil rises by US$10/bbl in three months—as occurred in 4Q17—a “liquidity drain” of about US$100bn is created.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Big Questions For 2018

    Many of the important questions confronting investors at the beginning of 2018 are the same as they were 12 months ago. And in most cases I would suggest the same answers. This may seem boring or stubborn, but it is quite reasonable in the middle of a long term economic expansion and structural bull market.

    1
  • Gavekal Research

    The Future 8 Index

    Lyxor Asset Management Japan, Société Générale’s Asset Management division, has announced the launch of its “Neo-Futuristic World Fund” which is open to Japanese investors with an official launch on April 18. It will invest in a fully collateralised structured notes linked to an index of companies worldwide created by Gavekal Research; The Future Eight Index. “The Future Eight” refers to advanced technologies being developed in eight industries...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Most Indebted Country?

    One of the arguments long advanced by die-hard bears is that the US is “the most indebted country in the world”, and therefore heading irreversibly for economic disaster. Often they reach their conclusion by summing US current account deficits over the years, or by looking at how much US government debt is owned by foreigners. Sometimes they even dig a little deeper and unearth something called “the US net international investment position”,...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    German Overheating? No, Eurozone Rebalancing

    In early November, Germany’s Council of Economic Experts, a panel of five heavyweights that advises the government, declared there were clear signs that Europe’s largest economy was running above potential and at risk of overheating. Three weeks later inflation data showed that consumer prices rose by a faster than expected 1.8% year-on-year in October, up from 1.5% in September, with the core ex-energy and food inflation rate also surprising to...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Persistence Of European Political Risk

    This was supposed to be the year that European political risk was laid to rest by the spring defeats of populist Euro-skeptic parties in the Dutch and French elections. But as 2017 draws to a close, anyone glancing at the headlines from Europe is likely to come away with the impression that reports of the demise of political risk were ludicrously premature. A rundown of this week’s news, from today’s regional election in Catalonia, through...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    US Tax; Not What You Expect

    With the Senate having voted its approval, Republicans are set to tomorrow finalize the biggest shake up in the US tax code since the 1980s. A common refrain among analysts is that the bill should propel equity prices higher, but do precious little for economic growth. We wonder if the reverse may unfold.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Macro Update: A Safe Landing In 2018

    In our quarterly chartbook, Chen Long reviews the economy’s direction since the Party Congress and explains the outlook for 2018. Financial regulation is tightening, and the tradeoff between growth and the environment is shifting. But with construction holding up and inflation surprisingly strong, the base case is still for a moderate slowdown.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Cui Bono?

    Today, with European growth humming along and Beijing having (again) shown an ability to keep China’s economy on a sustained expansion path, no one seems fazed about a possible economic downturn. Apart from the UK (where the obsession is Brexit), concern centers on geopolitical risks. Yet depending on their region, investors are worrying about very different things.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Where Has Eurozone Inflation Gone?

    The eurozone’s recovery continues, but all is not proceeding quite as expected. At its meeting last week, the European Central Bank’s governing council raised its forecasts for eurozone growth over the next two years to reflect the single currency area’s strengthening cyclical upswing. But while growth is accelerating, inflation remains largely missing in action, with the ECB last week revising down its forecasts for core inflation.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    No Full English Brexit In The EU’s Roach Motel

    Full English Brexit is off the menu. When Theresa May rushed into the Café Berlaymont at 6:00am last Friday, all that was left on the menu was an over-priced double espresso with a side of Irish bacon. When she returned to Brussels yesterday, after losing a crucial parliamentary vote on her Brexit policy, the only new item on the menu was a large slice of humble pie.

    2
Show me: results