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E.g., 26-03-2017
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    Gavekal Research

    Mapping China’s Asian Dream

    China’s effort to build a regional sphere of influence is upending Asian geopolitics and through huge infrastructure building, quite literally changing the geography. As such, China’s pursuit of empire is an epochal undertaken which investors need to properly factor into their macro understanding of the region. This is why Gavekal’s Tom Miller wrote a book on the topic and as Louis explains in this piece, it is a tome he really wanted to write...

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    Gavekal Research

    Decomposing Sterling

    In recent months, few discussions at Gavekal have been as polarized as the debate over sterling. Charles and Louis both note the pound’s undervaluation. History suggests it will revert to the mean. Anatole argues that the British economy will undergo a painful restructuring over the coming years facing hard Brexit. I will examine the structure of the UK’s current account and the forces that are at work to propel sterling.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    The Eurozone’s Silver Lining

    Just as it has been hard to work up much excitement over the last couple of years about the eurozone’s grinding emergence from economic despond, so investors should not be too downhearted at the latest lackluster growth data. Yesterday Eurostat revised down its flash estimate for 4Q2016 eurozone GDP growth to 0.4% QoQ, compared with its advance estimate of 0.5% released two weeks ago. The downward revision was due mainly to weaker than expected...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Containing Capital Outflows

    China’s balance of payments show that 2016 was another big year for capital outflows, which accelerated in the second half. But Chen Long argues this pickup will not continue into 2017. Current outflows are not large enough to stop the central bank from pursuing its exchange-rate policy, which can be sustained for another couple of years.

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    Gavekal Research

    In Dutch With The Electorate

    There is a tendency to divide Europe into the “serious” beer drinkers of the north and the not so serious wine tipplers of the south. Using such a dichotomy reinforces a common assumption that trouble in modern day Europe always arrives from the Mediterranean regions. It explains why there is a cottage industry of politicos watching developments in Italy, Spain, France and Portugal, while precious little energy is expended on political goings on...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: India After Demonetization

    Udith discusses the effects of India's demonetization last year on the growth of the economy

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    Gavekal Research

    India Macro Update: After Demonetization

    India has been a strong growth story over recent years and offered a haven from the commodity boom-bust-boom cycle that has roiled emerging markets. However the investment climate has darkened in recent months due to the government’s surprise “war on cash” and the central bank seemingly coming to the end of its easing cycle. In this chart book, Udith and Tom take a systematic look at the macro environment and review the outlook for major asset...

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    Gavekal Research

    US Inflation: The End Of The Affair

    If there is one consensus view about US markets it is that inflation is ticking up, a tightening cycle is underway and the dollar will again rise. As markets are made at the margin, any hit to these beliefs could push investors into a sharp repositioning. Within Gavekal there is disagreement on this score, with Anatole arguing that US inflation and bond yields are on an upward trend, Charles taking the opposite view and Louis stating that US...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Brace For US-China Trade Conflict

    Is Donald Trump backing down from his threat to get tough on China trade? It might seem so: after three weeks of rapid policy moves, his promised anti-China trade action is still missing. But it will not stay missing for long. Some US move against China trade looks inevitable in coming months, though the costs will be high and the benefits unclear.

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    Gavekal Research

    Choosing Between Disadvantages

    It was a record that Germany would rather not have announced, at least not this week. Yesterday official data showed that Europe’s über exporter racked up a current account surplus in 2016 of US$281bn versus a mere US$210bn for China. With the US running by far the largest offsetting deficit, such data means that the temperature between Washington and Berlin is likely to get hotter.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    China’s Asian Dream

    China’s “Asian Dream” is to restore its position as the undisputed regional power. Trump’s decision to bin the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which would have anchored the US presence in Asia, brings China a step closer. While Trump’s sidekicks huff about wielding a bigger stick in the South China Sea, China is transforming the facts on the ground.

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    Gavekal Research

    The US$10 Trillion Question

    Over the last seven years, emerging markets have been stuck in a trading range they show no sign of exiting. For this reason, in Asia at least, I have advised investors to adopt a market timing strategy based on return-to-the mean valuation measures (see Go Contrarian In Asia). The problem with this approach is that it works until it doesn’t. So what could cause a breakdown? Charles for one worries that the presence of a huge global US dollar...

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    Gavekal Research

    Germany And The Greek Question

    Last month Cedric Gemehl and I argued that the new geopolitical back-drop offered by Donald Trump had changed the basic strategic equation for Germany. Berlin could respond by doubling down on its mercantilist impulses, or alternatively embrace its eurozone partners. An interesting test case of our hypothesis has just arisen: yes, the Greek problem is back on the agenda.

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    Gavekal Research

    A Win-Win Deal For Abe And Trump?

    This Friday Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe will touch down in Washington for his second meeting with Donald Trump since the November 8 US election. The auspices hardly appear propitious. In the run-up to the meeting, the new US president has pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a multilateral trade deal built largely around the US-Japan economic axis. He has railed against Japan for deliberately undervaluing the yen. He has bemoaned...

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Downside Of Dividends

    Dividends were long an afterthought for Chinese listed companies—but no more: most large firms now pay out more than 30% of their earnings to shareholders. Yet this change has been wrought by heavy-handed regulation, rather than improving governance. The resulting system distorts the signals to investors and the incentives of company managers.

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    Gavekal Research

    The End Of The European Dream

    Back in 2002 I wrote a book, Lions Led By Donkeys, whose main point was that the euro’s adoption would kill the competitive and heterogeneous Europe that I so loved. It was prefaced by Milton Friedman who predicted that Europe was set to enter a period of rigor mortis. Fifteen years on and it is clear that Europe as a unitary concept is indeed dying.

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    Gavekal Research

    Less Than It Seems: US Financial Deregulation

    US bank stocks rallied strongly on Friday on Donald Trump’s promise to tear up much of the Dodd-Frank 2010 financial regulation act. But steering a new act through Congress will not be easy. And while proposals now on the table greatly simplify the existing rules, they do not amount to the wholesale easing of regulations that would be needed to drive a rapid acceleration of bank lending.

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    Gavekal Research

    Golden Rule Says Extend Duration

    Great economists are seldom top flight mathematicians. One exception was Maurice Allais, who won the Nobel Prize in 1988 for his “rigorous mathematical formulations of market equilibrium and the efficiency properties of markets”. Among his findings was his so-called “golden rule”, which states that over the long run, long term government bond yields always converge with the structural growth rate of the economy.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Is It Finally Time For The Property Tax?

    After more than a decade of debate, could China finally be ready to start imposing a property tax? In this piece, Rosealea argues that political will and technical preparations point to progress toward a tax in 2017. While some fear the impact on prices, the gradual rollout of a narrowly focused tax should be mostly a non-event for markets.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    India’s Budget: A Fine Balance

    After the fiasco that followed India’s move in November to scrap large denomination banknotes, yesterday’s budget was carefully calibrated to reassure jumpy markets. With the IMF estimating that the monetary bloodletting will drain 1pp off growth this fiscal year, doubts have resurfaced over India’s ability to realize its economic potential. The good news for nervous investors is that India remains wedded to fiscal responsibility. The bad news...

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