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E.g., 29-07-2017
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    Gavekal Research

    Back To Sanity In Japan

    I know, or I believe I know, that over thelong term equity returns follow one thing only: corporate earnings. As an example, look at Japan. If I rebase both the Topix price index and corporate earnings to 100 in 1978, I find that today the market is at at 385, and earnings are at... 385. Spot on!

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Regulatory Storm

    The past few months saw a flurry of regulatory measures to tackle risks in the financial system. Beijing is trying to avoid a credit crunch, but the effect on the economy will depend on how far these measures are implemented.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    US-China Power Shift: Not So Fast

    Do Donald Trump’s miscues ensure the eclipse of Pax Americana by a rising China? Not yet.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Belt And Road To Leadership

    China’s Belt and Road Initiative elicits widespread skepticism and concern, while the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is often seen as a poor cousin of the aborted Trans-Pacific Partnership. But they are currently the only credible plans for greater Asian integration.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Export Upgrade Challenge

    Shifting China’s industrial production from low-margin assembly to high-value, technology-intensive goods has long been the Holy Grail for planners. Export data show a lot of progress, but also an enduringly high reliance on foreign components, technology and management.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Still Holding High Mao’s Banner

    Within China’s increasingly restrictive political landscape, neo-Maoists continue to thrive. Tolerated for now as Xi’s ideological allies, they could turn into his fiercest opposition should he surprisingly uphold his Third Plenum pledge to give a “decisive role” to the market.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The East Is Rising … Isn’t It?

    Will the Asia-Pacific region will shape global politics and economics in the 21st Century, as the West’s centuries-long domination of world affairs draws to a close, or will unseen threats in Asia, from economic stagnation to political unrest and growing military tensions, throw a spanner in the works? Tom Miller reviews two books that each present their case.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    After The Pivot, It’s Bye-Bye Asia

    With the costs and risks of confronting China growing by the day, the most likely scenario for the Asia-Pacific is one of steadily dwindling US influence. This is good news for Beijing and its claim to regional leadership.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    High-Speed Rail Blues

    While China’s trade with Southeast Asia flourishes, a lack of experience has left its investment in the region lagging far behind. For now, Southeast Asian countries will continue to work with Japanese, EU and US institutions—regardless of how attractive China’s initial bids are.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: China In The Asia-Pacific

    China is attempting to become Asia’s new leader. The high costs of confronting it mean that the US’s regional influence is likely to dwindle. But widespread distrust of China means that many countries will continue to prefer investment from the EU, US and Japan. This issue of China Economic Quarterly investigates China’s role in the Asia-Pacific.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    EMs And A Chill Trade Wind

    The Asian trade cycle, having perked up notably since mid-2016, shows worrying signs of rolling over. Korean export growth in May halved from a month earlier, while Taiwan has seen the same measure steadily slow since February. Today, China reported a reduction in export growth to single digit levels, while import demand growth for May fell to 15% YoY, compared to 38% in February. To an extent, this can all be explained by flattering base...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Figuring Out Where The Ball Will Be

    Rugby players fall into one of two categories: the forwards, who typically go where the ball is (and in the process put their heads in places most sane people wouldn’t put their feet), and the backs, who try to go where the ball will be, which enables them to look good and keep their kit clean, but earns them the scorn of the forwards. Peter FitzSimons, the first Aussie to play for a French club (Brive), once remarked: “Come the revolution, the...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    What Is The Signal In The Renminbi’s Surprising Strength?

    Over the past week and a half, the renminbi has appreciated 1.1% against the US dollar in the onshore market, and 1.5% offshore, where the PBOC has also engineered a spike in short-term interest rates. It seems China wants to send a signal about the renminbi, but markets are having trouble decoding what it is. Andrew outlines three possible strategies the central bank may be following.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Leadership Scenarios For The Party Congress

    The key event in China’s political calendar is now just a few months away. The 19th Party Congress will reveal who will join top leader Xi Jinping in the ruling Politburo Standing Committee, and in the process provide clues to China’s political future. In this piece, Yanmei outlines different possible scenarios and explains their implications.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Decoding The HK Dollar’s Signals

    When Moody’s downgraded China’s credit rating this week, it also downgraded Hong Kong. Although Hong Kong is fiscally autonomous, and has seen no rapid build-up in leverage comparable to the mainland, Moody’s still downgraded the territory from Aa1 to Aa2. In explanation, the agency cited Hong Kong’s “tightening economic, financial and political linkages with the mainland,” which it warned “risk introducing more direct contagion channels”...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Beijing’s Non-Capital Idea

    China wants to build a new satellite city to take over Beijing’s “non-capital functions,” and their associated workers. In this piece, Tom Miller examines the Xiong’an New Area and the government’s grand plans to cap Beijing’s population and spread wealth to surrounding regions. He finds the economic benefits are unlikely to outweigh the costs.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Don’t Buy The Smartphone Hype

    As Apple prepares to launch its anniversary iPhone and Samsung unveils models that don’t blow up, technology equities in the US and Asia have soared on hopes for a new smartphone cycle. After 2016 saw high-end smartphone sales fall, investors are betting that consumers respond to gee-whizz gadgetry by replacing their devices more often. We are not so sure.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Corporate Deleveraging Is Ending, Not Beginning

    The recent financial crackdown may give the impression that “China is finally getting serious about corporate deleveraging.” This impression is wrong: while leverage is already declining, this is likely to stop in 2017. Worries about zombie companies have also faded as rising profits and falling rates make it easier to service corporate debt.

    6
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Great Corn Crash

    China’s “supply-side reform” measures have helped drive a recovery in prices of industrial commodities. In agricultural commodities, the name is the same, but the results are very different: the price of corn fell 44% from its peak after the government removed price supports. Now that prices have adjusted, quantities will follow: imports will fall.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Regulatory Stress Is Still Bearable

    The main source of uncertainty in the Chinese economy right now is the financial crackdown launched in March. In this piece, Andrew looks at the April data and finds that the regulatory campaign’s impact has so far been contained. This supports our call that the regulatory stress is a bigger problem for asset markets than for the real economy.

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