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E.g., 19-11-2017
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Good Kind Of Capital Outflow

    China’s government has been gradually restricting the ability of households and companies to move money out of the country, with one big exception: outbound portfolio investment is actually getting more support not less. As the Connect schemes with Hong Kong ease worries about capital flight, they have become the preferred channel for outflows.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    A Post-Reform China

    The 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party will decide whether Xi Jinping emerges as the head of a more “presidential” system of government, or whether the current collective system holds sway. Either way, Arthur argues that hopes for a new burst of reform in the Congress’s aftermath are probably mistaken.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Restrained Boom In Land Sales

    Even as China’s housing market has cooled, the market for land has been heating up. Land sales to developers are up 10% so far in 2017, after declining for the past three years, and prices are up 50-100%. In this piece, Rosealea argues that such signs of froth are deceptive: land sales are still historically low and developers quite conservative.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Expanding Universe Of Private Companies

    In 2017, China is on track to host a record-setting number of IPOs, mostly by private firms. Big state firms may still dominate stock market indexes, but they are no longer the only option for investors. The number of Chinese private firms large and liquid enough to be of interest to investors is ten times larger than it was just five years ago.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Southwest Rising

    For almost two decades, China’s government has been pouring investment into its inland provinces. Tom Miller visits the southwest and finds the results have been striking: major cities have modernized and incomes are up substantially. Better infrastructure and industrial relocation are now arguably driving a self-sustaining regional growth story.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Macro Update: Prolonging The Peak

    In our latest quarterly chartbook, Chen Long reviews the mixed signals from China’s economy and markets. While the cycle has peaked, the government has still found ways to prolong industrial reflation. But economic growth and bond yields will head down from here, though gradually, as the tightening of financial regulation has been well managed.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Bottom Line On North Korea

    Even as the US and North Korea exchange more threats, actual US policy still focuses on getting China to apply economic pressure. Yanmei argues that while China has gradually cut trade ties with the North, it wants the regime to stay in place. This is China’s bottom line, not because of any friendship but because China’s own interests demand it.

    10
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Online Retail Is Maturing

    The red-hot growth of online retailing in China has cooled in recent years, but it heated up again in the first half of 2017. Ernan argues this is likely a blip, as the fundamentals show online retail is an increasingly mature market. Leading firms are now focusing on the convergence of offline and online retail as the next big opportunity.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    EM Can Handle Fed Fallout

    Yesterday, the “world’s central bank” confirmed that it will reverse its quantitative easing policy and likely raise interest rates in December and then three times in 2018. On the same day, the benchmark emerging market index nudged higher and is only a whisker off a six year high. Ordinarily, Federal Reserve tightening is terrible news for EMs, especially for those economies with the temerity to simultaneously try policy easing. Yet this is...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Reviewing My Calls

    Over the years my research has focused on broad concepts which have been applied in many situations and lots of reports. These include ideas such as the disruptive power of platform companies, assets whose value comes from scarcity rather than efficiency, or the effect of firms running on Schumpeterian, Malthusian or Ricardian principles. Once in a while, however, I do get specific and make investment calls. Having had a little time this week, I...

    6
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Capacity Cuts Won't Hold Up Metals Prices

    To reduce air pollution, China says it will run northern steel mills at just half their capacity this coming winter. Prices of steel and other metals initially rallied on the news, but now are coming off. In this piece, Rosealea argues that metals prices have seen the top of their range, and explains why capacity cuts won’t push prices higher.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    High Financial Anxiety

    China’s financial system has its troubles, but a large-scale crisis is unlikely. Localized problems among poorly run, small-scale city and rural banks are the bigger risk.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Your Guide To The Maze

    China’s financial system has grown almost five-fold and seen a proliferation of players and products over the past decade. We try to impose order on chaos and explain how the system works.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Short History Of Financial Deregulation

    Financial deregulation has seen a cartel of national state-owned banks give way to a bewildering array of local banks, non-bank lenders, wealth management products and loans disguised as investments. Regulators are tightening their grip, yet so long as Beijing demands high-speed growth, it will have to tolerate some financial misbehavior.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China’s Banks Are Better Than You Think

    China’s banks get a bad rap. But actually they are pretty well run, especially if one understands their twin roles as commercial actors and tools of state development policy.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Beijing’s Bid To Make US Rail Great Again

    CRRC is winning contract after contract in the US light rail market, slowly squeezing out traditional competitors. Its secret? The promise of direct investment and job creation.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Hollywood Hoo-ha

    Chinese investors have developed a taste for Hollywood, but their buying spree has drawn more scrutiny than tangible benefits. With their wings clipped by new foreign investment rules, their focus will turn back to their home market.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Finally, China Learns To Kick Ass

    When future historians seek to mark the moment when China celebrated its arrival as a world power, they may well point to its newly crowned highest-grossing movie, Wolf Warrior 2. The film is repudiates every sick-man-of-Asia slight China has suffered since the Opium War, and tells the world: those days are over; China is powerful; get used to it.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Rebooting China Inc.

    Beijing is tightening controls on cross-border deals. The good old days of unhindered and lavish outward investment are over. Strategic ODI is back in fashion, with China’s SOEs at the helm.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Dealing The Right Kind Of Opium

    Xi Jinping’s embrace of traditional Chinese religions is a highly political move to build up popular support. But his hostility to Christianity, Islam and Tibetan Buddhism could cost him dearly in terms of social stability.

    0
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