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E.g., 21-11-2017
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    Gavekal Research

    All Pomp, No Circumstance

    President Trump’s 12-day trek through Asia promises much pomp and little circumstance. Since his administration has no strategic vision for the region and has chosen to abandon many of the tools of diplomacy in favor of overblown rhetoric and empty threats, there is little chance of material progress on any important economic or security issues.

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    Gavekal Research

    Equities When The Dollar Declines

    The US dollar has strengthened over the last couple of months. But the relative maturity of the US cycle, the US dollar’s overvaluation, and the prospect for changes in monetary policy stances outside the US all argue for US dollar depreciation over the medium term. Against this bearish backdrop, KX examines the characteristics of equities that tend to outperform when the US currency is depreciating.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The View Into 2018

    The Chinese economy has experienced a nice cyclical recovery since 2016, but now most forecasters are expecting a loss of momentum in 2018. So how is this slowdown likely to play out? In this piece Chen Long lays out his case for a gradual cooling in both real and nominal growth that will not spook global markets.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Pain In Spain

    To date, the situation in Catalonia reminds that a political imbroglio does not have to morph into an economic crisis. It all depends on the context. Recent data shows that Spain’s economy has broadly shrugged off the secession drama being played out in Barcelona and Madrid.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Politicians Behind A Big Data Boom

    A local politician named Chen Min’er rose to prominence last week with his promotion to the Communist Party’s ruling Politburo. Chen’s main claim to fame is his transformation of Guizhou, one of China’s poorest provinces, into a supposed powerhouse of “big data.” But Chen’s real skill was in using political leverage from his ties to Xi Jinping.

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    Gavekal Research

    The US Investment Environment

    House Republicans put forward their tax reform bill and Jerome Powell was put up to replace Janet Yellen at the Federal Reserve. On the face of it, this all seems like good news for markets. US firms may soon get a permanent tax cut on domestic earnings and mostly keep Uncle Sam away from their foreign earnings, while the prospect of a Taylor-rule adjustment to interest rates has been dodged as Powell seems set to maintain a path of gradual...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Housing & Construction Review 2017

    In her annual overview, Rosealea summarizes the outlook for the housing market and construction activity in China. This concise chartbook reviews the drivers of growth in 2017, digs into the key indicators and explains the core scenario for 2018: a modest correction in housing sales and prices, and a gradual slowdown in construction activity.

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    Gavekal Research

    Keep Calm And Suck It Up

    The Bank of England is expected to turn tail today by raising interest rates for the first time in a decade. What follows is a particular worry for homeowners, who since 2008 have seen interest payments on mortgages fall by as much as -95% due to 550bp of rate cuts. After all, the specter of a disorderly Brexit looms, businesses are threatening to move out of the UK and economic growth has slowed to a miserly 1.5%. I am relaxed about this...

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    Gavekal Research

    Debating The Eurozone Recovery

    Over the last two years, Nick and Cedric have held similar views about the eurozone’s economic situation. In recent months, however, they have started to diverge on whether this framework still describes Europe’s situation. The upshot is that while Cedric is bulled up, Nick has begun to think the recovery is running out of road.

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    Gavekal Research

    A Different Order Of Political Risk

    Investors in big technology companies, both US and Chinese, are waking up to political risk. In Washington yesterday, senators hauled lawyers for Facebook, Google and Twitter over the coals for carrying foreign-funded political advertisements during the 2016 presidential election campaign in contravention of US law. Meanwhile in China, the government is demanding representation on the boards of big internet companies, including Tencent, Alibaba...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: How Much Longer For Low Rates?

    For decades fixed income and equity markets have enjoyed a secular bull market, propelled higher by low real long term interest rates, depressed by a glut of global savings. In this Strategy Monthly, Will Denyer updates his Capital Provider Ratio, a powerful demographic tool which indicates that the growth of global excess savings has peaked, and that the glut will soon begin to dry up, with far-reaching consequences for global asset markets.

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    Gavekal Research

    Selling India’s Housing Dream — Part I

    India’s economy is in a slump, laid low by a chronic lack of investment and weak job creation. How can India both revive growth and generate jobs for millions of low-skilled workers? Tom argues that one answer lies in the construction sector, specifically the mass buildout of affordable housing.

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    Gavekal Research

    False Dawn For The Dollar — And Oil

    Last week the US dollar broke out of its summer trading range and hit its strongest level against the euro and the yen since July. The Brent oil price broke through US$60/bbl to a two-year high. And even sterling seemed to be on the verge of strengthening beyond its post-French election trading range against the euro. How should investors respond to all these breakouts?

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Reconstruction Of The Administrative State

    The clear message from the Communist Party Congress is that Xi Jinping has political primacy for the foreseeable future. But what does Xi want to do with all his power? In this piece, Andrew summarizes three of the more concrete policy trends Xi signaled at the Congress. Behind all three is a drive to strengthen the apparatus of the Party-state.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Unconvincing Pick-Up In US GDP

    US third quarter GDP growth came in on Friday at 3% QoQ annualized, much higher than the expected 2.6% rate. The strength of the headline number sparked optimism that the US economy had successfully shrugged off any negative impact from hurricanes Harvey and Irma, and certainly did nothing to discourage equity investors, as both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite rode buoyant earnings to new highs.

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    Gavekal Research

    London Seminar — October 2017

    Anatole argued that the investment environment should remain upbeat given predictable monetary policy and a global cyclical upturn. Chen Long contended that China’s post-Party Congress slowdown should be gradual. Cedric made a bullish case for European equities, while Charles presented Gavekal’s latest artificial intelligence investment tools.

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    Gavekal Research

    Tapering Without The Tantrum

    Mario Draghi yesterday confirmed the European Central Bank’s decision to opt for a “slower for longer” approach to winding down its quantitative easing program of asset purchases. His announcement outlined a threefold approach to ECB tapering:

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: After Abe's Election Victory

    Despite poor personal approval ratings, last weekend prime minister Shinzo Abe scored a convincing victory in Japan’s general election. In this short video interview Neil examines what the prospect of five more years of “Abenomics” policies means for Japan’s economy, corporate sector and stock market.

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    Gavekal Research

    US Equity Exposure For The Late Cycle

    The US equity bull run continues even as the US economy issues an increasing number of late cycle indicators. For investors who want to maintain exposure to the stock market but are getting nervous that the economy may soon turn down, KX examines the characteristics that allow stocks to outperform in the late stages of the cycle.

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    Gavekal Research

    Bitcoin And Money

    Philosophically, I have often argued that an asset’s value can derive from just two sources. It can be scarce like a jewel, or useful like a tool. It is customary to measure these values using “money”, which offers a unit of account, a medium of exchange and a store of value. When “national money” forms the backbone of a banking system, it is usually guaranteed by a central authority. Yet, the real question about money has always been whether it...

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