E.g., 17-12-2018
E.g., 17-12-2018
We have found 675 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call December 2018

    In the final Gavekal Research Conference Call of the year, Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky and Charles Gave shared their perspectives on a year which has been challenging for all asset classes, and offered their thoughts on what could be in store for investors in 2019.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Brexit Game Of Chicken

    The Brexit roller coaster seemed to come off the rails on Monday with Theresa May’s effort to prevent parliament voting on what looked like her doomed plan to leave the European Union. May’s decision, which had been denied by her most trusted senior ministers right up to the moment it was leaked to the BBC, initially looked like a typical case of the can being kicked down the road. Yet by the time she had finished her parliamentary statement,...

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Reasons To Believe In Détente

    Should we take seriously President Donald Trump’s prediction of “a deal” at his summit with President Xi Jinping on November 30? Nobody can be sure—not even Trump himself—since the outcome may depend on whether Peter Navarro or Steven Mnuchin manages to catch his attention before Air Force One lands in Buenos Aires next week. There are, however, four reasons which I have discussed here before to justify continuing to increase long positions in...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Winding Road To Vassalage

    No one much likes Theresa May’s compromise deal that would leave Britain as a rule-taking, semi-detached appendage to the European Union. That, however, is the most likely outcome after the UK cabinet yesterday approved an exit deal that sets up a November 25 summit, where EU leaders will be asked for their assent. Shortly afterwards, the UK parliament will have its say, and despite challenging math in the House of Commons a “national interest”...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    This Really May Be The Start Of A Year-End Rally

    Although this week started with a violent sell-off, Anatole argues that the stars are aligned for a year-end equity rally, especially in emerging markets. This is because EMs have sold off not on US interest rate worries but a combination of rising oil prices and heightened political risk. Those headwinds now seem to be abating and beaten up markets could surprise before year-end.

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    London Seminar — October 2018

    At Gavekal’s seminar in London last month Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky presented on whether the world is breaking up into three different monetary zones, and whether this is a correction to, or an end to, the long-running global bull market. Micahel Clendenin of Gavekal RedTech explained how they conduct research on the Chinese technology and internet sector.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    It's Finally Safe To Buy Sterling

    The pound rose 2% yesterday after a statement from the British government that a Brexit deal could be expected by late this month. That has since been rowed back. Nevertheless, the UK is moving into an endgame where the most plausible outcomes are either a "soft Brexit", or a new referendum which results in the UK remaining in the EU. Both would be good news for sterling.

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Yes, We're Still In A Bull Market

    Anatole and Will believe that continued exposure to US equities makes sense, since underlying corporate profitability remains strong. So long as one avoids the most rate-sensitive sectors, US portfolios should be 70-75% in stocks, with the rest mainly in cash. Moreover, they argue that the period of EM underperformance is now done, and emerging markets are poised for a significant rally.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    How The Brexit Stalemate Breaks

    As the Brexit negotiations enter their endgame, a stalemate has become the most likely outcome. Theresa May’s Conservative Party is now in open rebellion against her leadership, with Britain’s weekend press reporting that her government is just 72 hours from collapse. And a “No Deal” Brexit “car crash” is now described as a 50-50 probability by many politicians and commentators in both Britain and Europe. Yet the pound has maintained its value...

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call October 2018

    In this month’s Research Conference Call Louis-Vincent Gave examined the present bad tidings from markets and asked whether the global bull market faces a denouement. Anatole Kaletsky argued that this sell-off will likely prove to be a temporary setback for emerging markets and that the global bull market may have further to run. However, he warned that the outcome will depend heavily on where the oil price goes from here.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    No Deal Could Mean No Brexit

    After European Union leaders rejected Theresa May’s Chequers deal, the UK government is left with only two alternatives, argues Anatole. If Parliament in November is confronted with No Deal or No Brexit, the most likely outcome would be a new referendum and a vote to remain. The result will be a massive appreciation of sterling and a rally in many UK domestic assets.

    9
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Why The US Cannot Win A Trade War

    The US has made a fundamental policy mistake in pursuing a trade war against China. A Keynesian macroeconomic analysis shows that the US will likely be worst affected by the conflict, while China should escape unscathed and several other emerging markets could be clear gainers. This sell-off may be an ideal opportunity to "buy the dip" in EMs

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Tail Risks That Worry Me

    Yesterday I made the case that emerging markets should be superior performers in a global bull market, which I characterized as the most hated in history. What that analysis left out was the relative prospects of the other big blocks in the global equity universe; namely, Europe and Japan. My core point yesterday was that trade wars do more harm to economies that close their markets than those countries which supply them, and on this score...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Misunderstanding Today’s EMs

    Suppose that, like me, you think the global equity bull market has a few more years to run and hence the sell-off which culminated with Turkish debt being downgraded two weeks ago was a merely a correction. Where are the best opportunities to “buy the dip”? The answer depends on whether you also share my view about the underlying causes of this year’s market setbacks.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Most Hated Bull Market In History

    Anatole reviews the state of the US bull market and concludes that it still has legs. He does, however, warn that portfolio strategies which worked well during the disinflationary era since the mid-1980s are unlikely to play well in this bull market’s later stage.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Bullish Logic Of Trump’s U-Turns

    The news on Wednesday that Donald Trump’s administration is considering imposing tariffs of 25%—rather than 10%—on an additional US$200bn of Chinese goods might appear to be an aggressive escalation of its trade conflict with China. But there is a high probability the proposed tariffs will never be implemented. Trump has a track record of talking tough, only to back down before it comes to the crunch; a pattern of behavior that may help to...

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Arithmetic Of Brexit

    If a country votes to make two plus two equal five, that “democratic decision” will eventually be overwritten by the rules of arithmetic. Anatole reckons this is what’s playing out in Britain, as Theresa May’s government struggles to get a parliamentary majority for any realistic Brexit plan. If the situation persists, the only alternative will be another referendum—only this time the choice would be between remain and a far less attractive, but...

    11
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Time To Buy Brexit Britain

    “Will the Brexit agony never end?” Anatole asked in mid-June. It now seems that the agony may end much sooner than expected. Following last Friday’s decision by prime minister Theresa May to blur all her “red lines” in negotiations with the EU, and—paradoxically—the subsequent resignation of hard-Brexiteer cabinet minister David Davis, the time to start buying cheap British assets may have come.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Terms Of Betrayal

    Will the Brexit agony never end? Theresa May managed this week to remove troublesome amendments attached by the House of Lords to her legislation for taking Britain out of the European Union. But she was immediately in even deeper political trouble. These problems show just why I have been advising clients to avoid any big bets in sterling assets, whether long or short.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    ‘Peak Politics’: Another Chance To Buy The Dip?

    In recent weeks, investors have been hit with multiple political shocks in the shape of Italian politics, American trade policy and global oil shenanigans. But even as President Donald Trump seems to escalate the American “trade war” and Italy’s new prime minister thumbs his nose at Brussels’ budget parsimony, Anatole asks if political risks have in fact peaked, offering a “buy the dip” opportunity.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Whether To Buy Italy (And The Euro)

    On Wednesday, Louis argued that the Italian president’s rejection of a proposed coalition finance minister was “worse than a crime, a mistake”. Anatole and Cedric are not so sure. In this paper they examine the two conditions—one political, one financial—that will signal a major buying opportunity in Italy.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Resurgence Of Political Risk

    Political risk is now the main driving force of financial markets. In 2017 investors learned—or thought they had learned—that political upheavals just create noise, with no lasting effect on market trends that are set by economic fundamentals. But in 2018 this relationship has been reversed. Wherever we look today—at oil prices, global trade flows or conditions in Europe—politics seems to overwhelm economic fundamentals and set the market trends.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Hardly A Game Changer For Oil

    While nobody could have been surprised by the full-scale commercial warfare launched against Iran by President Trump yesterday, his announcement raised more questions than answers. The most important question is whether this action will make the world safer or further destabilize Middle Eastern and global geopolitics. The second question is whether the US enforcement of sanctions will really be as tough as Trump’s belligerent rhetoric and the...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    What—Me Worry?

    What should most worry investors about the state of the US economy today? The answer is: “Total absence of worry”. That was my clear conclusion after a week in Los Angeles hobnobbing with the thousands of CEOs, financiers, technologists and politicians at the Milken Global Conference. An intoxicating cocktail of tax cuts, deregulation and record profits has transformed the post-crisis normalization of business confidence into uncritical euphoria.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The New Source Of Market Risk

    Believe it or not, there was good news, as well as bad, from the US markets last Friday. The bad news was obviously Donald Trump’s threat to escalate the trade war with China and the equally aggressive response from Beijing. The good news was the fall in March’s US payrolls growth to just 103,000 from February’s upwardly-revised 326,000. This slowdown has eliminated, at least until after the summer, the risk of an unexpected Federal Reserve...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Reasons To Buy The Dip

    After spending many years as Gavekal’s equity permabull, I joined Charles and Louis last December in warning of the risks to what was then a roaring, and accelerating, bull market. But my way of thinking about these risks was rooted in a different analytical framework, and so I have come to a different conclusion about how investors should respond to this latest sell-off (for Louis’ take, see Following Yesterday’s Pullback). With the lows of mid...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Why Aren’t Bond Investors Panicking?

    Once again, the volatility that rocked global financial markets in recent days was at least as interesting for what it didn’t tell us as what it did. Amid growing protectionism, rising rates and fiscal irresponsibility in the US government, the biggest and most important financial market of all—the US treasury market—isn’t bothered.

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    London Seminar — March 2018

    In our seminar in London this week Charles pondered the investment consequences of the US moving back into an inflationary period. Tom discussed Chinese politics in light of Xi Jinping’s elevation. Cedric presented on how investors can best benefit from the diversity of the European economy. Anatole explained why the long-running global bull market is likely to continue, but also where the risks are buried.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Change And Stasis In Italy

    In Italy’s general election on Sunday, the anti-establishment Five Star Movement emerged as the largest single party in each chamber of parliament, and the populist Lega eclipsed Silvio Berlusconi’s Forze Italia to dominate the right of Italian politics. Following these changes, it is hard to see how any plausible combination of parties can secure a stable majority in both houses of parliament. As Cedric and Anatole explain, the most likely...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Time To Stop Worrying About EU Political Risk

    Is it time for investors to finally forget about “political risk” in the eurozone? Judging by the weekend’s events in Germany and Italy the answer is an emphatic “Yes”. The big event was the overwhelming vote by Germany’s Social Democratic Party to participate in a “grand coalition” with the center-right. This means that Angela Merkel will be reappointed for a fourth term as chancellor. Thus Germany will have a stable government with no serious...

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    After The Yellen And Bernanke Puts, The Pavlov Put

    Last Monday, I pointed to three reasons why the recent turmoil in global equities would probably prove nothing worse than a counter-trend “buy on dips” correction, rather than the start of a serious bear market. That's not to say that worries about inflation and overheating are unfounded. But investors are still quite relaxed about both growth and inflation, as evidenced by historically modest bond yields.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    CSI Wall Street

    Bear market massacre or harmless buy-the-dip correction? Financial investigators have spent the weekend sifting through, dismantling and reassembling dozens of clues to determine the true nature of the shocking crime committed on Wall Street last week, as stock prices suddenly went down instead of up. But amid the righteous indignation inspired by this offence against morality and natural law, possibly the most important forensic evidence has...

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call January 2018

    In Gavekal’s monthly research call yesterday, Louis Gave reviewed evidence that the investment environment is experiencing a once-in-a-generation shift from a deflationary environment to one that is broadly inflationary. Anatole Kaletsky argued that this metamorphosis will likely be an orderly affair. Arthur Kroeber updated his view on China’s likely impact on global commodity markets.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Five Big Bond Market Questions

    With 10-year US treasury yields near the point of breaking out above their 2017 high of 2.6%, financial commentators around the world have suddenly become obsessed with a single question: Have bonds finally entered a bear market, after the multi-decade bull trend that started back in October 1981, when the 10-year yield peaked at 15.8%?

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Big Questions For 2018

    Many of the important questions confronting investors at the beginning of 2018 are the same as they were 12 months ago. And in most cases I would suggest the same answers. This may seem boring or stubborn, but it is quite reasonable in the middle of a long term economic expansion and structural bull market.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    No Full English Brexit In The EU’s Roach Motel

    Full English Brexit is off the menu. When Theresa May rushed into the Café Berlaymont at 6:00am last Friday, all that was left on the menu was an over-priced double espresso with a side of Irish bacon. When she returned to Brussels yesterday, after losing a crucial parliamentary vote on her Brexit policy, the only new item on the menu was a large slice of humble pie.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research December Call

    In Gavekal Research’s monthly conference call yesterday Anatole Kaletsky outlined five reasons why investors can be optimistic that the current bull market will continue for years to come. His bullishness is moderated by three broad risks.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: The Long Cycle Continues

    As equity markets everywhere continue to trade higher, money managers are getting increasingly nervous about how long the rally can last. In December’s Strategy Monthly, Anatole argues that we are still only half-way through a secular bull market that can last through the end of the decade. With further US rate hikes on the cards, barring any nasty surprises non-US markets are likely to outperform going forward. The only fly in the ointment is...

    0
  • Gavekal Research

    Goldilocks And The Ten Grizzly Bears

    Over the last fortnight, Anatole has written lengthy pieces on why he remains structurally bullish and how investors should play this trend. Today, he takes a realistic look at factors that could disrupt his generally upbeat assessment of the global economy and markets. This piece is a journey into Anatole’s darker side.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Regime Change For Oil?

    Every US or global recession in the past 50 years has been preceded by a doubling or more of oil prices, but not every doubling of oil prices has been followed by recession. While even US$70/bbl probably does not pose a serious risk to the world economy, any rise above US$70 could spark a combination of inflationary pressure and reduced demand that proves lethal to global financial conditions and growth.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Fake Brexit? Or No Brexit?

    The British economy since the Brexit referendum is often likened to the suicide jumper who leaps off a 20-storey building, shouting “so far, so good” as he falls past the 10th floor. This comparison is unfair to suicides. The real message about economic performance from the government’s annual budget statement yesterday was “so far, so bad”. While a minority of economists and investors—plus a large majority of Conservative politicians—share...

    10
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    New York Seminar — November 2017

    At Gavekal's November seminar in New York Louis Gave, Arthur Kroeber, Cedric Gemehl and Anatole Kaletsky presented their macro outlooks and investment recommendations.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Asset Allocation For The Global Bull Market

    On Monday Anatole outlined his fundamental reasons to believe that the world is enjoying a global bull market that still has years to run. Today he reviews the investment recommendations that flow from his thesis, and examines how investors can best play the unprecedented divergence of the US business cycle from the cycles in Europe and the emerging markets.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    This Is (Still) Not A Peak: It’s A Global Bull Market

    It was almost five years ago that Anatole started to shout loudly that the US equity market had achieved a clear breakout from its more than decade long bear market trading range. His advice has been to stick with the trend. In light of this year’s near across-the-board upward moves in risk assets globally, it would be tempting to back away from this positioning. However, in this piece he argues that the bull market is now going global and so it...

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    False Dawn For The Dollar — And Oil

    Last week the US dollar broke out of its summer trading range and hit its strongest level against the euro and the yen since July. The Brent oil price broke through US$60/bbl to a two-year high. And even sterling seemed to be on the verge of strengthening beyond its post-French election trading range against the euro. How should investors respond to all these breakouts?

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    London Seminar — October 2017

    Anatole argued that the investment environment should remain upbeat given predictable monetary policy and a global cyclical upturn. Chen Long contended that China’s post-Party Congress slowdown should be gradual. Cedric made a bullish case for European equities, while Charles presented Gavekal’s latest artificial intelligence investment tools.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Sterling And The Brexit Soup

    Anyone who doubts that interest rate expectations are the main driving force of currency movements, got a wake-up call last week, when sterling surged from US$1.32 to US$1.36 in response to the Bank of England’s bluntly hawkish statement that “there may need to be some [upward] adjustment of interest rates in the coming months”. Nevertheless, I remain a denier.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Why Lower Forever Is Good News For Investors In Big Oil

    Suppose you are convinced, as I am, that oil prices will fall to near-zero by the middle of this century, for the reasons I outlined last week. If so, then among the best investments of the coming decades will be the equity of giant international oil companies such as BP, Shell, Exxon, Chevron, ENI and Total.

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Oily Slope Of Hope

    As Louis often points out, a highly-touted stock that fails to rise on good news is often riding for a fall. The best example of such a “tired bull” at present is not the much-despised US equity market, which has continued making higher highs and higher lows since February 2016, despite a pretty terrible news flow. It is crude oil.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Battle Of Brexit Is Over

    Judging by statements made by two of the most fervent Europhobes in Theresa May’s cabinet, Soft Brexit has emerged the victor over Hard Brexit. While this means the UK's exit will be postponed during a transition period, and possibly beyond, Anatole argues this comes with its own drawbacks and risks. Things are likely to get worse before they get better.

    0
Show me: results