E.g., 21-10-2017
E.g., 21-10-2017
We have found 11062 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Dow 20,000 Conundrum

    The Trump trade continues. Yesterday the Dow Jones Industrial Average passed the magical 20,000 mark for the first time, with the S&P 500 closing at a record high just a whisker short of 2,300. I hate to be the one to douse the market’s high spirits with a bucket of cold water (well, I don’t really hate it), but sober analysis suggests that the current Trump-propelled rally is a fad that may soon fade.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Very Marginal Tightening

    Monetary policy is getting interesting as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches. The central bank has injected huge amounts of liquidity to the market, but it has also made a rare move to raise the rates of its lending facilities. In this piece, Chen Long explains the PBOC’s moves and why they don’t signal a hike in benchmark interest rates.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Drawing Meaning From 2016, And A Roadmap For 2017

    Having experienced a rough 2016, the temptation for most investors is to clean the slate and start again. Unfortunately, life in financial markets does not allow for such neat endings. In one of his biggest reports in years, Louis argues that after such a complex and tumultuous year, it is essential for investors to draw a breath and derive some understanding of what just happened. Only then should they try to sketch out future scenarios.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Return Of German Inflation

    Inflation is re-emerging in Germany, and a tightening labor market implies inflationary pressures will continue to mount in what could promise to become the great German reflation that many have long looked for to rebalance the eurozone economy. Yet rising inflation threatens to erode one of the central tenets of the German economic model.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Investment Backlash Begins

    Xi Jinping’s passionate defense of the globalized economy at Davos last week was, in reality, a sign that Beijing knows the tide is turning against it. The surge of Chinese outward direct investment in recent years has already sparked a backlash, and the political momentum for more restrictions on Chinese investment now looks unstoppable.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Do We Need To Worry About The Shrinking US Monetary Base?

    The US monetary base is shrinking, and with Fed officials talking about winding down their bond holdings, it is only natural for equity investors to be concerned. However, as KX explains, the contraction in base money is a technical effect of recent regulatory changes, and the Fed is not yet running down its assets.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Trump May Yet Learn To Like Border Adjustments

    Last week, Donald Trump dismissed border tax adjustments as “too complicated”. He may yet reconsider. If the newly-installed president has one dominant policy objective, it is to make the US more attractive as a destination for investment and as a location for manufacturing. Alongside deregulation and cutting the US corporate tax rate, imposing border tax adjustments along the lines proposed by the House Republicans is one of the simplest and...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Is China Ready For A Trade Shock From Trump?

    China reported an acceleration in its economic growth on Friday, just hours before Donald Trump was sworn in as US president. But growth could take a hit if Trump makes radical changes to tax and trade policy. And while China has plenty of weapons to fight a trade war, those measures are unlikely to completely offset a sudden shock to its exports.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Germany’s Date With Destiny

    Germany, more than any other European economy, has relied on the US-dictated, rules-based international system to define its post-World War II identity. Germany’s highly specialized export-orientated economy has thrived within the World Trade Organization and its security has been ensured by the American nuclear umbrella. It is not clear whether Donald Trump’s recent broadside against Berlin reflects a permanent rupture in that order, but...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Trump’s Declarations On The Dollar

    Even more than getting it right on US interest rates, performance in 2017 will most likely be driven by getting the US dollar call right. And forming a view on the US dollar with any high degree of certainty is a challenge.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Dodging A Bullet In The Interbank Market

    In late December, China’s interbank market experienced its greatest turbulence since 2013. Though it was resolved quickly, the mini-crisis still offers some important lessons. Beijing’s technocrats did show good crisis management skills—but it’s also clear that weak links in the domestic financial system will continue to test those skills.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    On Being Wrong

    For much of the second half of 2015, Charles was concerned that the US economy was softening, and that it would tip into recession sometime in mid-2016. The feared recession never materialized. In this paper, Charles asks “why not?”, re-examining normally reliable indicators to work out where and why they went wrong.

    9
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Hard Brexit Means Soft Sterling

    Since the June referendum the only real choice for Britain has been Hard Brexit or No Brexit. The No Brexit option disappeared as soon as Theresa May became prime minister under the slogan “Brexit means Brexit”. Barring some deus ex machina that swept May out of power, that left only one possibility: a rock-hard Brexit.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research January Call

    Charles Gave argued that Donald Trump’s protectionist policy could lead to a breakdown of the post-1971 fiat money system that is based on a US dollar standard. Will Denyer deconstructed the likely workings of a new trade taxation regime in the US and explained what that means for currencies. Arthur Kroeber outlined the likely Chinese response to a US trade broadside and argued that Beijing was decently well placed to weather the attack.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: A Coming US-China Trade War?

    In this video interview Arthur explains how a US-China trade war may play out and the implication for capital outflows from China

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Trump's China Choice: Trade War Or New Deal?

    Once Donald Trump occupies the White House he is sure to launch salvos at China in the form of new tariffs, anti-dumping actions and the labeling of China as a currency manipulator. It is tough to predict exactly what these actions will entail going forward. What is certain is that the long-running US consensus on how to handle China has broken down.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Dissonance In US-China Relations

    Once Donald Trump occupies the White House he is sure to take aim at China in the form of new tariffs, anti-dumping actions and the labeling of the country as a currency manipulator. What is unclear is whether such actions reflect a tough negotiating stance, or instead a fundamental shift in the strategic equation. In this video interview, Arthur explains why the mixed messages coming out of Washington have the potential to spark a dangerous...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Political Fiction

    European economic indicators have turned up in recent months, causing many investors to conclude that the eurozone’s banishment in the desert of economic stagnation is over, and the promised land of a normal recovery beckons. I am not convinced and judging by recent moves in the bond market, I’m wondering if the next eurozone crisis is already upon us.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    After Reflation, Profits Still Decent

    The stimulus-driven rebound in housing sales and commodity prices lifted the profits of China’s industrial firms in 2016. With the cycle turning, profit growth is certain to weaken in 2017. But for most manufacturers—outside the volatile commodity complex—the end of reflation should see only a gradual slowdown and still decent profit growth.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Tax Reform And The Dollar: It’s Not So Straightforward

    Tax reform is high on the agenda both for US president-elect Donald Trump and for the new session of Congress that began earlier this month. Among the reform proposals that could most affect investors are those advanced by the House Republicans, which many commentators have argued could cause a substantial exchange rate appreciation of the US dollar. In theory—all else being equal—this would be true. But our examination of current exchange rate...

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Emerging Markets Trumped

    In yesterday’s Daily, Louis argued that despite the renewed strengthening of the US dollar over the last couple of months since the US election, there has been no generalized flight out of emerging markets. Sure, Turkey appears to be experiencing a classic emerging market currency crisis. But as Louis noted, the collapse of the lira has been driven by peculiarly Turkish factors. There is little or no risk of contagion spreading to the broader...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Deconstructing Dollar Strength

    The trajectory of the US dollar is likely to be the single most important determinant of investors’ returns in 2017. Either the US currency will weaken, leading to a bull market in much of the rest of the world. Or it will strengthen, which will make markets life more difficult to navigate. Charles warns that we are approaching a tipping point.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Very Turkish Mess

    Get into a taxi in Rio de Janeiro, Jakarta or Cape Town, and ask for that day’s US dollar exchange rate, and the chances are that the driver will know the answer to within a decimal point. Try the same thing in Tokyo, London or Berlin and you will likely receive a blank stare. My anecdote reflects a simple reality: most people in emerging markets think in two currencies: their own and the US dollar. This highlights most emerging market consumers...

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The End Of The Dollar Standard

    Charles is encouraged by the broad thrust of Donald Trump’s economic program, but deeply worried that the US’s emerging protectionist agenda could wreck the dollar-based credit system that underpins global financial markets. The dollar-standard was always more vulnerable to a US action than foreigners losing confidence in it as a store of value.

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Firing On Three Cylinders

    The upturn in the eurozone continues to gain momentum. The recovery in France which long has been among the European economy's laggards, coupled with brisk activity in Germany and Spain, suggests that the eurozone is now firing on three of its four main cylinders in a cyclical upswing that promises to become self-sustaining.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Half-Hearted Battle Against Air Pollution

    The return of severe smog to northern China since December has frightened families and raised more doubts about the government’s declared “war” on air pollution. So is the government losing the war? Or are they not even fighting it in the first place? In this piece, Rosealea explains the political and economic realities of air pollution in China.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Japanese Equities: More Where That Came From

    Japan is the top performer among developed world equity markets over the last six months, with the Nikkei 225 up 28% in local currency terms. Even in US dollar terms, the Japanese market has gained a robust 14%, enough to outperform an S&P 500 lent wings by the Trump trade. That strength is set to continue into 2017, with the Tokyo market remaining well bid on the back of a monetary policy stance that the Bank of Japan will find it hard—even...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    What You Need To Know About The Party Congress

    In 2017, the Communist Party will hold its 19th Congress, an event that will set the political framework for Xi Jinping’s second term as China’s leader, and beyond. The big question for the Congress is how much Xi will be able to change the rules of elite politics to strengthen his own power. This piece offers a guide to those rules of the game.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Alchemist’s Apprentice

    If done right urbanization can be considered development alchemy as it transforms surplus rural labor and simple building materials into the “gold” of economic growth. India has lagged China’s embrace of city life over the last 30 years, but that is now changing and the result could be transformative for the Indian economy’s growth outlook.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Long Rates & The Velocity Of Money

    As Gavekal’s readers will be aware, much of my research is driven by a handful of powerful obsessions. Lately these have included my fixation with the euro as a weapon of mass destruction, and my determination to elucidate how the theories of the great 19th century economist Knut Wicksell apply to today’s economies and markets. In recent years these have, to some extent, displaced other pre-occupations, and I have done very little work on one of...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The RMB: Steady As She Goes

    In the first three trading days of 2017, the renminbi jumped more than 1% against the US dollar. But this bullish start to the year does not signal a change of tack for China's policymakers. Here, Chen Long explains why Beijing’s strategy of managing the renminbi against a trade-weighted basket of currencies will not change in 2017.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Gavekal Monthly: Our Top 12 Questions For 2017

    For our first Monthly of the year, we depart from our normal format to offer our thoughts on the dozen most important questions investors must face this year. Not surprisingly, the issues that rose to the top were the impact of the new Trump administration's policies on the dollar and US bond yields, and whether the eurozone will spend the year tearing itself apart. Also,oil prices, the risk of financial implosion in China, and where to...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Higher Headline CPI Does Not Spell ECB Tapering

    According to the financial media, eurozone inflation is “soaring”. The initial estimate released yesterday showed that consumer price index inflation picked up to 1.1% year-on-year in December, from 0.6% the previous month. That is the fastest rate since 2013. What’s more the rise occurred against a background of generally accelerating economic activity. In December, the eurozone composite PMI ticked up to 54.4, its highest reading since May...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The US Equity Dilemma

    On the first trading day of the year, we learnt that the Trump trade remains very much alive. The S&P 500 rose 0.8%, 10-year treasury yields inched up 1.3bp and the DXY US dollar index climbed 0.4%. While investors seem focused on the positive ramifications of a Donald Trump presidency, the year ahead is full of uncertainty—with changes in store for fiscal, monetary, regulatory and trade policies, all of which will occur in the context of a...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Five Macro Questions For 2017

    For our first China research piece of the new year, we offer a guide to the economic outlook in the form of short answers to some big questions: Will China be as boring as consensus forecast imply? Will the central bank hike interest rates? Will the housing market correct sharply? Will it be a good year for Chinese equities? Will the labor market hold up?

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Big US Dollar Risk

    The US dollar enters 2017 up by 25% against a broad basket of currencies over the last two-and-half years. The single biggest question for investors in the new year must be whether the dollar continues its bull run.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Crisis Of Market Fundamentalism

    After 2008, the prevailing market fundamentalism forbade political interventions that could have shared the benefits of capitalism while mitigating its costs to specific people. The result was a post-crisis confusion and disillusionment whose political effects we witnessed last year—and which has not yet ended.

    9
  • Gavekal Research

    Gavekal TrackMacro

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A €20bn Start In Italy

    Yesterday the Italian government said it would seek the permission of parliament to raise €20bn in new debt to fund the recapitalization of the country’s weakest banks. Although Italy’s politicians had been earnestly hoping to avoid overt state involvement in bank restructuring, this could well turn out to be a positive development. Coupled with encouraging progress towards the private sector clean-up of Italy’s biggest bank, a well managed...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Is The US Equity Market Overvalued?

    After the S&P 500 index set a new record closing high last Wednesday, up some 6% since the US presidential election, I am left once again scratching my head over the age-old question: is the US equity market expensive or cheap?

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Dollar Surge Continues, For Now

    Louis likes to say that the foreign exchange market is a serial monogamist. At any one time, the market is faithful to a single idea. The trouble is that at any moment it is liable to switch the object of its affections. Right now the foreign exchange market is clearly still smitten by the Trumpflation trade. Following the US Federal Reserve’s decision earlier this week to raise interest rates, yesterday the US currency’s DXY index climbed to...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Post-Fed Risk Of Sector Rotation

    As expected, the US Federal Reserve went ahead and raised its benchmark interest rate by 25bp yesterday. Less widely expected was the positive tone of the Fed’s comments on the economic outlook, and its slightly more hawkish view on the trajectory of rates, with policymakers now projecting three rate increases next year rather than two. Fed chair Janet Yellen described the changes as “tiny”. But the market reaction—10-year treasury yields rose...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Macro Update: Reflation Continues Into 2017

    In our latest quarterly chartbook, Chen Long assesses the outlook for China next year. Growth driven by industrial reflation should continue into early 2017, as private investment and consumption both improve. With inflation up and growth stable, monetary policy is tighter on the margin, which will likely lead to a downturn in housing sales.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Call Me An Old Curmudgeon

    Call me an old curmudgeon, but financial markets are currently experiencing an outbreak of optimism that could well prove to be dangerous. At the moment we have a situation where both the US stock market and long rates are rising on expectations of faster nominal growth. Readers who have followed my Wicksellian research are no doubt scratching their heads over this concurrent move, because they will appreciate that there is no prospect of...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Our 2016 Holiday Reading List

    “All books are divisible into two classes,” said John Ruskin, “the books of the hour, and the books of all time.” This year’s list of works enjoyed by Gavekal staff in 2016 includes books from both categories; among them are an account of Russian nationalism, an examination of the sharing economy, and a look at the future of Japan. Happy reading.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Between A Rock And A Hard Brexit

    Sterling has gained almost 7% against the euro this month, partly because of comments from British ministers hinting at a softer version of Brexit than the sharp and rapid break implied by Theresa May’s early speeches. For example, sterling’s rebound through US$1.25 and from £0.90 to the euro was directly caused by a parliamentary answer from David Davis, the minister in charge of Brexit, suggesting that Britain might continue to make...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    How Not To Control Coal Prices

    The price of coal has been on a wild ride recently—and the volatility is not over yet. China’s government spent much of 2016 trying to push the coal price up, but the ensuing price surge now has them backpedaling and trying to push prices down again. There is a real risk these interventions will cause prices to overshoot on the downside in 2017.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Putting The Lenin Back In Leninism

    When Xi Jinping took power four years ago, the Communist Party was plagued by opposition and factionalism, a loss of control over provincial governments, and an erosion of legitimacy. To solve these problems Xi has centralized power in a single leader—himself. Such a retrograde approach bodes ill for China’s long-run economic and political future.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Can Stability Maintenance Survive Trump?

    To meet the needs of their own political cycle, Chinese leaders will aim to ensure steady economic growth for the next year. Unfortunately, it seems that the political need of US president-elect Donald Trump is to cause as much disruption for China as possible.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Leninism Upgraded: Xi Jinping’s Authoritarian Innovations

    In order to cement Communist Party control and discipline, Xi Jinping has dismantled China’s successful model of ‘explorative governance’ and latitude for local initiative. China’s long-term success depends on whether he is willing to relax the reins after the 2017 Party Congress.

    0
Show me: results