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E.g., 21-11-2017
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    Gavekal Research

    Who Needs A Government?

    What would it take to make you put more risk on the table in the final month of a year that has generally produced decent investment returns? It helps to have a synchronized global economic recovery that relies on multiple engines of growth and a US-tested monetary policy framework that seems to work as advertised. Yet the potential for disappointment, starting with US tax reform, appears to be growing. Add to that list an outbreak of political...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    How Much Slack In The Eurozone?

    It is a core contention of the bullish view on Europe espoused by Anatole and Cedric that the eurozone’s recovery is running four or five years behind the US economic cycle and that there is still plenty of slack left in the eurozone economy. But is there really as much as the bulls believe?

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    A Turkish Vortex

    For a country that relies on the kindness of strangers to fund its economy, Turkey, under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has been going out of its way to alienate allies and capital providers. Its relationship with the US has been on a downward trajectory for months and things are not much better with the European Union. This matters because the pieces are in place for a classic balance of payments and financial crisis in Turkey. This much is clear from...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Living With A Nuclear North Korea

    A special envoy of Chinese president Xi Jinping will head to North Korea in what is being billed as a gesture of solidarity and friendship between the two countries’ communist parties. Coming just days after Donald Trump’s visit to the region, the move appears to give the lie to Trump’s assertion that he successfully convinced Xi to “use his great economic influence” to press North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Asset Allocation For The Global Bull Market

    On Monday Anatole outlined his fundamental reasons to believe that the world is enjoying a global bull market that still has years to run. Today he reviews the investment recommendations that flow from his thesis, and examines how investors can best play the unprecedented divergence of the US business cycle from the cycles in Europe and the emerging markets.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Decent Growth Risky For Bond Yields

    China’s economic data for October confirms that the moderate slowdown in growth is continuing as the housing cycle fades and government spending weakens, even as corporate earnings benefit from higher-than-expected inflation. Chen Long now sees an increasing risk for domestic bond yields in this combination, though it is bullish for equities.

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    Gavekal Research

    Too Much Forward Guidance?

    It should be an ideal environment for equity investors. Europe yesterday published stronger than expected growth figures for the third quarter, with German GDP expanding 2.8% YoY, and even laggard Italy growing 1.8%. That performance raises the possibility of faster earnings growth even as the European Central Bank is proposing to stretch out its stimulative asset purchases through the third quarter of next year and keep interest rates in...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Consequences Of Saudi Arabia

    Our new monthly Loser Report aims to identify things that investors should avoid, whether countries, sectors, themes or asset classes. In this second instalment Louis looks at the tumult affecting Saudi Arabia and assesses the ricochet effect across the Middle East and beyond. He wonders whether regional currency pegs could be set to topple and whether a major industry centered in Europe and the US could be a major victim of the shakeout.

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    Gavekal Research

    Brexit, The Pound And UK Stocks

    When it comes to Brexit, I suspect that one of the few things about which Anatole and I agree is that the negotiations between London and Brussels have so far bordered on the farcical, and that the internal squabbling within the UK’s governing Conservative Party has hardly been conducive to raising the tone. Beyond that we part company. Anatole believes the Brexit talks are approaching a critical juncture for investors in UK assets—a view he...

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Three Retail Takeaways From 11.11

    It was a busy weekend for China’s online retailers, who reported huge sales numbers for their November 11 promotional events. Alibaba’s aggressive strategy is helping uphold its dominance even as market growth slows, and online retail integrates with offline. In this piece, Ernan cuts through the wave of publicity with three simple points.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Reading China’s Financial Opening

    Friday’s surprise announcement that China will scrap its restrictions on foreign ownership of local financial institutions has been widely hailed as a major opening of the domestic market. But as Chen Long explains, while it is a significant move with positive implications for Chinese equities, it is certainly not about to change China’s financial sector landscape in any major material way.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    This Is (Still) Not A Peak: It’s A Global Bull Market

    It was almost five years ago that Anatole started to shout loudly that the US equity market had achieved a clear breakout from its more than decade long bear market trading range. His advice has been to stick with the trend. In light of this year’s near across-the-board upward moves in risk assets globally, it would be tempting to back away from this positioning. However, in this piece he argues that the bull market is now going global and so it...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Escaping The Indian Funk

    Udith presented on India during Gavekal's Hong Kong seminar in November. This video also includes relevant excerpts from the question and answer session.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Selling India’s Housing Dream — Part II

    When Indians visit China for the first time, it often comes as a shock: China is more materially developed than they could ever have imagined. And when Chinese visit India for the first time, it too comes as a shock: India is even more chaotic, dirty and materially backward than they had been told!

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research November Call

    In our monthly research conference call yesterday, Will Denyer outlined his case that demographic factors explain much of the decline in interest rates over the last 30 or so years. His point is that we are nearing a turning point in the global demand-supply relationship for loanable funds and the overall direction of interest rates should be higher.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Contradictory Signals On US Corporate Credit Risk

    US high-yield spreads have widened by 39bp over the last three weeks. Nevertheless, by long term historical standards, they remain exceptionally tight, indicating that the bond market is pricing in remarkably little US corporate credit risk. That message is at odds with the tale being told by the US equity market, which is signaling that corporate credit risk is on the rise. Only one of them can be correct. There are good reasons to think it may...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    From Tianjin, Affordable Luxuries

    The surging population of affluent Chinese households is a key global market for all kinds of luxury goods. Foreign brands have done well in this boom, but the market is getting more competitive as local firms up their game. Thomas and Ernan report from Tianjin on two very different companies that are both succeeding in high-end niche markets.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Truth About Euro-Dollar

    At the time of writing, a five-year zero coupon treasury bond is priced at about 90 while a comparable German zero sells for 101.9. This absurdity reflects the fact that for all the talk of incipient European inflation, German five-year yields are still negative. Hence a fellow buying-to-hold such a German bond today is guaranteed to lose money, at least in euro terms.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Saudi Arabia’s Shifting Sands

    For the last three years the dominant narrative in the oil market has concentrated on the fundamentals of supply and demand. Geopolitical risk has been a minor—and transient—sideshow. All that changed at the weekend, when Saudi Arabia’s 32-year-old crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, or MbS as he is known, exercised his authority as the head of the kingdom’s newly-established anti-corruption commission to take down a broad swathe of the Saudi...

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    A Brave New, New World?

    The traffic has been one-way. Since mid-August, the Philly semiconductors index is up 23%, the Nikkei 225 by 18%, the S&P energy index by 14% and the S&P materials index by 10%. In other words, all “deep-cyclicals” and “price monetizers” are ripping higher. So what to make of this?

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