GaveKal Research
  • Contact us

  • What's New?
  • All Research
    • Full Archive
    • Daily Comment
    • DragonWeek
    • Quarterly Strategy Chart Books
    • China Economic Quarterly
    • Five Corners
    • Ad Hoc Comment
    • Other Chart Books
  • Authors
    • Andrew Batson
    • Gavin Bowring
    • Francois Chauchat
    • Conor Colwell
    • Will Denyer
    • Matthew Forney / Fathom China
    • Will Freeman
    • Thomas Gatley
    • Charles Gave
    • Louis-Vincent Gave
    • Pierre Gave
    • Catherine Holcombe
    • Anatole Kaletsky
    • Scott Kennedy
    • Arthur Kroeber
    • Yuchan Li
    • Tom Miller
    • Joyce Poon
    • Nate Taplin
    • Rosealea Yao
    • Janet Zhang
  • Regions
    • Americas
    • Europe
    • China
    • Asia
    • Global
  • Themes
    • Daily Reports
    • Economic Activity
    • Money and Inflation
    • Politics
    • Equities
    • Fixed Income
    • Currencies
    • Commodities and Energy
    • Real Estate
  • Multimedia
  • Dragonomics
  • Advanced Search
  • Current Reports  

    It's The Volatility That Matters - by Joyce Poon 

    Published on May 24th, 2013

    Bull-market Japan saw the TOPIX tumble -6.9% on record volume yesterday, as yen shorts unwound and the bond market gyrated violently. Equities sprung back this morning, but then got spooked after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank will not target the equity market. Even though it would be complete madness to expect the BoJ to ever jump into an equity market that is already up 80% since mid-November, this was enough for stocks to give back most of their gains by the close (up +1%)...
    Read More Read More

    [DG] After Wealth Products’ Rise, A Fall? – by Bao Jia Tan 

    Published on May 23rd, 2013

    It has been a challenge to keep up with the explosive growth of China’s wealth management products (WMPs; in Chinese, licai chanpin), the retail investment products that offer savers higher returns than traditional bank deposits. As more and more banks have jumped on the WMP bandwagon in order to attract and retain depositors, the total size of bank WMPs outstanding has grown to Rmb7.1 trn as of end-2012, from Rmb4.6 trn in 2011. Regulators have generally taken a relaxed view of WMPs, seeing them as a benign force for liberalizing deposit rates. But they have now started to take a tougher stance, enforcing new standards on the banks that issue these products. Does this crackdown mean that Chinese regulators have finally woken up to an explosion in potential risk, and are desperately trying to contain this swarm of vampire squidlets before they devour the financial system? No, because much of the alarmist commentary about WMPs misses how fundamentally boring most of these products are. The vast majority of WMPs offered by...
    Read More Read More 2 Comments

    Is It A Bond Bear Market? - by Will Denyer and Louis Gave 

    Published on May 23rd, 2013

    For the past six months, and again on Tuesday, Anatole has argued for a structural equity bull market, at least in the US and Japan, in which dips had to be bought. The corollary to this reality is the question of whether OECD government bonds have now entered a bear market in which any rally is to be sold?...
    Read More Read More

    Five Corners - by The GaveKal Team 

    Published on May 22nd, 2013

    In the latest Five Corners biweekly review of global economics and investment: Investment overview: Arthur Kroeber argues that all four major economies are making "inefficient restructurings." The US is furthest along in the process, so its bull market is sustainable...
    Read More Read More 2 Comments

    Will Bernanke's Testimony Move Markets? - by Louis Gave 

    Published on May 22nd, 2013

    This afternoon, Ben Bernanke will head up to the Hill for a scheduled testimony bound to capture everyone’s attention. Indeed, in recent days we have seen other Federal Reserve uber-doves back away from their usual rhetoric...
    Read More Read More

    Other Recent Reports

     
    2013-05-21Hail The New Marginal Oil Producer - by Nate Taplin
    2013-05-20Goldilocks And The Ten Bears - by Anatole Kaletsky
    2013-05-20[DG] DragonWeek – A Turn To The Supply Side
    2013-05-20The Best-Looking Horse In The Glue Factory - by Louis Gave
    2013-05-17The Tantalizing Prospect Of Normality – by Pierre Gave
    2013-05-16The Arithmetic Of Abenomics - by Anatole Kaletsky
    2013-05-16[DG] Finding Investment’s Future – by Rosealea Yao
    2013-05-16Has The AUD Met Its Wooloomooloo? - by Cathy Holcombe
    2013-05-15Should One Short Germany? - by Charles Gave
    2013-05-15A Better Growth vs Inflation Trade-off - by Francois Chauchat
    More
  • Chart of The Day



  • Today's Reports RSS Feed

    The Tantalizing Prospect Of Normality – by Pierre Gave 

    Published on May 17th, 2013

    An asset can have value because it is scarce or because it is productive. Consider the case of silver versus an S&P500 constituent company. Well-run firms should, in the long run, perform better than precious metals because they generate positive cash flows that can be computed into a capital value. But there are times when shiny metals excel—and this usually points to worryingly loose monetary policy. Since the TMT bubble burst in 2000, silver has outperformed the S&P500 by about 350%. This was, of course, a period when US real interest rates were for the most part deeply negative (see How the World Works and the chart below)...
    Read More Read More 7 Comments

    The Arithmetic Of Abenomics - by Anatole Kaletsky 

    Published on May 16th, 2013

    The 3.5% GDP growth announced this morning suggests that Japan may be the fastest growing economy in the G7. Since the Tokyo stock market hit bottom exactly six months ago, the Nikkei share index has soared 72%. Meanwhile, the yen has experienced its biggest ever six-month move against the dollar. All these events appear to be linked to Shinzo Abe and the new regime he has installed at the Bank of Japan...
    Read More Read More

  • Register here for a
    FREE TRIAL


  • Hot Topics

    • Eurocrisis
      • Should One Short Germany? - by Charles Gave
      • An Update On The French Disaster - by Charles Gave
      • Europe's 'Thatcherite Keynesiansim' - by Francois Chauchat
      • Waiting For The ECB Decision - by Louis Gave
      more
    • US Economic Recovery
      • Hail The New Marginal Oil Producer - by Nate Taplin
      • Goldilocks And The Ten Bears - by Anatole Kaletsky
      • The Best-Looking Horse In The Glue Factory - by Louis Gave
      • The Tantalizing Prospect Of Normality – by Pierre Gave
      more
    • Japan Game Changer
      • It's The Volatility That Matters - by Joyce Poon
      • The Arithmetic Of Abenomics - by Anatole Kaletsky
      • Japan Exports Ready To Rumble - by Will Freeman
      • A 'Perfect Score' For Abenomics - by Joyce Poon
      more
    • Southeast Asia Bubble
      • Don't Miss Out On Asia - by Joyce Poon
      • Malaysia’s Longer Term Debt Riddle - by Gavin Bowring
      • Indonesia's Version Of A Great Rotation - by Gavin Bowring
      • Look Forward, Not Back In ASEAN - by Gavin Bowring
      more

  • Deep Dives

    • Quarterly Strategy Chart Books
      • Quarterly Strategy Chart Book - Beyond Currency Wars: A New Investment Landscape
      • Quarterly Strategy Chart Book: What We Need Now Is Growth
      • Quarterly Strategy Chart Book: The Liquidity Dams
      • Quarterly Strategy Chart Book: How To Survive A Panic Attack
      more
    • China Economic Quarterly
      • [DG] China Economic Quarterly March 2013 - The Reform Agenda
      • [DG] China Economic Quarterly December 2012 - State-owned Enterprises
      • [DG] China Economic Quarterly September 2012 - China In Africa
      • [DG] China Economic Quarterly June 2012 - Demographics
      more
    • Growth Markets Monthly
      • Growth & Markets Monthly
      • Growth & Markets Monthly
      • Growth & Markets Monthly
      • Growth & Markets Monthly
      more
    • Ad Hoc Chart Books
      • Growth & Markets Monthly
      • Growth & Markets Monthly
      • Growth & Markets Monthly
      • [DG] China Macro Chartbook Feb 2013
      more
    About Us  
  • Contact Us  
  • GaveKal in the Media  
  • GaveKal Home  
  • Privacy Statement
© GaveKal 2012